Every property we publish carries a 0–10 score, and the score is the same question asked four ways: is this discount real, explicable, monetisable, and exitable? This page sets out the inputs, the weightings, and the cuts — in plain English, because a methodology investors cannot interrogate is marketing, not research.
The four inputs
- BMV depth. The percentage discount of the asking price against the postcode-sector sold median from Land Registry price-paid data — the margin of safety, and the reason the deal exists.
- Distress signals. Evidence that the vendor may be motivated to transact below market: probate and estate sales, repossession, divorce, short lease, EPC F/G, structural concerns flagged in the listing, repeated price cuts, long days on market. Distress is what makes a discount believable.
- Best-strategy ROI. Every property is modelled across our ten exit strategies — BTL, BRRR, flip, HMO variants, serviced accommodation, lease options, title splits, and sourcing — and the highest viable ROI after underwriting cuts carries the score.
- Saturation risk. A negative input: whether the postcode sector shows too many recent sales near the assumed exit value, which would make the GDV assumption self-defeating if several similar projects exit at once.
The weightings
In the current version: BMV depth 35%, best-strategy ROI 30%, distress signals 25%, saturation risk −10%. The ordering is deliberate. Price against evidence matters most; return on cash makes the price meaningful; distress explains why the price is available; saturation polices the exit. The weightings are versioned, and material changes are documented on this page, dated.
The cuts
Scoring ranks deals; cuts decide whether a deal can be published at all. A property must clear every one:
- BMV depth of at least 15% against the sector sold median;
- distress score of at least 5 on the 0–10 scale;
- best-strategy ROI of at least 20% on cash employed;
- saturation risk below threshold;
- valuation confidence sufficient for the comparison to mean something — thin comparable evidence or unverified floor areas lower confidence, and a deal that needs the optimistic end of a shaky valuation fails.
A property clearing all cuts and scoring 7.5 or above is considered for publication. Most properties scanned never get close: scoring is primarily a discarding machine, which is what makes the survivors worth reading.
What "best strategy" means on a deal card
The strategy flag on a published deal — BTL, BRRR, flip, and so on — is the highest-scoring viable strategy from the per-strategy models, not the only one. The pack carries the full breakdown, so an investor who wants the property for a different strategy can see exactly how the numbers change. The flag is a research conclusion about where the evidence points, not an instruction.
Score bands, in practice
A 9.0+ is rare: deep genuine discount, strong distress evidence, robust ROI, and an uncongested exit — the deals we would ring a friend about. 8.0–8.9 is solid: real margin with at least one input merely good rather than exceptional. 7.5–7.9 publishes when the weakest input is one we can evidence clearly. Below 7.5, we typically do not publish — not because nothing there can work, but because at that level the research no longer adds enough certainty to be worth paying for.
Why this design
BMV depth is necessary but not sufficient — a 30% discount on a property nobody wants is not a deal. Distress signals make the discount credible. ROI ensures the discount is monetisable. Saturation risk protects against optimistic exit assumptions. The weightings will keep evolving as evidence accumulates on how scored deals perform, and the change history stays on this page.